Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 2.324127 2.462941 2.614113 2.792662 3.000122 3.236675 3.531601
2025-05-25 2.162561 2.336666 2.535003 2.782055 3.088410 3.466380 3.987510
2025-06-01 2.048131 2.241978 2.469710 2.764399 3.148307 3.653332 4.415194
2025-06-08 1.956873 2.162802 2.410402 2.740450 3.188019 3.810233 4.831495
2025-06-15 1.905151 2.125247 2.395933 2.767684 3.293403 4.070296 5.482308
2025-06-22 1.813062 2.030961 2.301708 2.678723 3.222679 4.051390 5.642444
2025-06-29 1.763668 1.987029 2.268556 2.668330 3.262100 4.209033 6.194299
2025-07-06 1.701472 1.923359 2.205367 2.610493 3.222882 4.227925 6.463481
2025-07-13 1.682001 1.913306 2.211962 2.650695 3.337292 4.532594 7.570171
2025-07-20 1.676670 1.920872 2.241946 2.726152 3.516624 5.002245 9.624993
2025-07-27 1.647361 1.895086 2.224252 2.728482 3.573321 5.242412 11.318697
2025-08-03 1.620986 1.871963 2.208795 2.732553 3.632781 5.505028 13.755404
2025-08-10 1.573242 1.819535 2.151360 2.670364 3.571512 5.485683 14.717817
2025-08-17 1.544602 1.792009 2.128059 2.660258 3.604772 5.707735 18.552836
2025-08-24 1.516148 1.763656 2.102180 2.644062 3.624381 5.902925 24.317011
2025-08-31 1.487914 1.734631 2.074033 2.622253 3.630499 6.065516 33.839412
2025-09-07 1.474657 1.725704 2.074533 2.646955 3.731130 6.545225 193.373015
2025-09-14 1.433119 1.676249 2.013627 2.566082 3.608265 6.286205 108.269862
2025-09-21 1.413000 1.656249 1.995708 2.556613 3.632990 6.522786 NaN
2025-09-28 1.382186 1.620526 1.953350 2.503862 3.562395 6.419122 NaN
2025-10-05 1.376562 1.619999 1.963355 2.540540 3.685728 7.053463 NaN
2025-10-12 1.379100 1.630962 1.990907 2.609225 3.890612 8.190905 NaN
2025-10-19 1.365068 1.617829 1.981156 2.611343 3.943722 8.723883 NaN